On the bedside table:
Back to School With Muqtada al-Sadr
For those who believe part of the reason for the reduction in violence in Iraq is because the various factions have decided to wait out the US occupation while working to reconstitute their power bases, this recent BBC report is of interest:
BBC: "The Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr has explained why he has not been seen in public for more than nine months. He has reportedly resumed his religious studies to gain the title of ayatollah."
Muqtada al-Sadr became influential in Iraq because of who he was rather than anything he had done-- he was the son of a very influential Shi‘a cleric-- a Grand Ayatollah-- who was murdered (most likely by Saddam). His strongest support comes from the poorer classes of Shi‘a, in the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad for example. Many of al-Sadr's supporters, mostly younger, look up to him as a resistance symbol fighting for Iraqi nationalism against foreign occupation. BUT he has a problem-- no formal religious standing-- and thus he has never been able to consolidate his power among a majority of the Shi'a population. His dealings with the powerful cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, have been less than cordial over the years plus armed clashes between his al-Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade (the armed wing of SCIRI) have caused large-scale bloodshed and suffering. It follows that Muqtada al-Sadr's role is by no means secure in the future Shi'a dominated Iraq -- so it makes perfect strategic sense for him sure up his religious credentials. It may also be about money: al-Sistani reportedly enjoys more support from established, property-owning Shi'a than does Muqtada-- therefore he controls donations from many wealthy Muslims who might otherwise support Moqtada's more militant anti-west stance if he were to become acceptable on religious terms (especially if the US continues to arm the Sunni's). Early in the war Muqtada's followers tried and failed to seize holy sites in Karbala from al-Sistani's control, resulting in significant casualties. What he failed to do by force al-Sadr may be attempting to accomplish through religious education. It's a development worth watching in the future...
News Updates:
3-30-08: Sadr Makes Truce Offer
3-30-08: In This Shiite Battle, a Marked shift From Past
3-30-08: Shia Fighting Threatens to Bury Hope of United Uraq
3-29-08: Video- Unrest in Sadr City
3-29-08: Alley Fighters
3-29-08: US Warplanes Widen Airstrikes in Iraq
3-29-08: Shiite Militias Cling to Wide Swaths of Basra
3-29-08: Al-Maliki Vows to Remain in Basra
3-29-08: Sadr urges militiamen in Iraq to reject calls to disarm
3-29-08: Iraqi militia defy call to disarm
3-28-08: Militia battles threaten fragile Iraq
3-28-08: U.S. Planes Attack Militia Strongholds in Basra
3-28-08: US Forces Drawn Deeper Into Iraq Crackdown
3-28-08: Baghdad on lockdown as rockets, bombs fly
3-28-08: Analysis: Al-Sadr in trouble, Iraq headed for meltdown
3-28-08: Analysis: Iraqis' Basra fight not going well
3-27-08: Iraqi Army’s Assault on Militias in Basra Stall
3-27-08: Iraq Prime Minister says no retreat
3-27-08: Thousands in Baghdad Protest Basra Assault
3-26-08:PBS: Iraq Leader Gives Basra Gunmen Ultimatum
3-25-08 - Iraqi and U.S. Forces Battle Shiite Militia
I too am a Muqtada al-Sadr and Mahdi Army watcher. In the future Shia
dominated Iraq, al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army will play very prominent roles,
in my opinion. Your assessment of his current hiatus from the Iraq
insurgency is very astute.